导读

2026年4月，金融开放发展研究院研究员陈文鹏以第一作者身份在国际重要期刊《International Review of Financial Analysis》发表了题为《Climate disaster risks, response capacities and sovereign bond yield spreads》的学术论文。

《International Review of Financial Analysis》

2026  Volume 113

期刊简介

《国际金融分析评论》（International Review of Financial Analysis，IRFA）是由Elsevier出版的金融领域同行评审期刊，1991年创刊于荷兰，ISSN为1057-5219，以双月刊形式发行 。该刊被SSCI收录，最新影响因子为9.8，位列JCR商业金融学科一区（排名2/241），同时入选澳大利亚ABDC评级A类及英国ABS三星期刊。期刊聚焦全球金融热点问题，发表理论与实证研究，涵盖公司财务、数字经济与税收合规等领域 。

摘要

From the perspective of extreme heat, this study integrates theoretical model expansion and empirical testing to investigate how climate disasters influence sovereign bond yield spreads and the effectiveness of climate response capabilities. Specifically, it first incorporates extreme heat into the rare disaster theoretical framework and extends the asset pricing model to provide theoretical evidence on how extreme heat influences sovereign bond yield spreads. Next, by utilizing an unbalanced panel of macroeconomic data for 49 countries over the period 1995–2018, this research applies the Least Squares Dummy Variable Corrected (LSDVC) approach for empirical tests concerning the effects, transmission channels, and response measures associated with extreme heat. The findings reveal that: (1) Extreme heat increases sovereign bond yield spreads across various nations, with the yield spread increase being more pronounced for developing countries; (2) The primary transmission channels through which extreme heat affects sovereign bond yield spreads include damage to agricultural production and repercussions on social stability, both of which raise the risk of sovereign default; (3) Enhancements in climate response capacity can effectively mitigate the increase in sovereign bond yield spreads caused by extreme heat. In response to extreme heat shocks, the business environment and social readiness of an economy all have significant alleviating effects. This study enriches the research on climate finance by concentrating on extreme heat and identifies the key sectors for responses to such climate events.

关键词

Asset pricing;Rare disaster;Extreme heat;Sovereign bond yield spreads

作者简介

陈文鹏，2024年毕业于厦门大学经济学院并获金融学博士学位。主要研究方向为国际金融、气候金融与生产网络等。在《中国工业经济》、《国际金融研究》、International Review of Financial Analysis、Economics Letters、Pacific-Basin Finance Journal、Applied Economics、Accounting and Finance等国内外知名期刊发表论文多篇，参与多项国家自科、国家社科和教育部基金项目，主持中国博士后科学基金面上项目、广东省哲学社会科学规划项目等多项课题。